Lost Sales Forecasting Lost Sales 1. The data used for the forecast is the Carlson sales data for the 48 months preceding the storm. Using the trend and seasonal method, the seasonal indexes and forecasts of sales assuming the hurricane had not occurred are as follows: Month Seasonal Index Month Forecast ($ million) January 0.9571 September 2.16 February 0.819 1 October 2.54 March 0.9071 November 3 .06 April 0.929 1 December 4.60 May 1.01 1 1 June 0.9371 July 0.9361 August 0.9741 September 0.7971 October 0.9361 November 1.1 19 1 December 15771 2. The data used for this forecast is the total sales for the 48 months preceding the storm for all department stores in the county. Using the trend and seasonal method, the seasonal indexes and forecasts of county-wide department store sales assuming the hurricane had not occurred are as follows: Month Seasonal Index Month Forecast ($ million) January 0.773 September 50.55 February 0.813 October 53 .20 March 0.976 November 66.78 April 0.935 December 103 .1 1 May 0.989 June 0.924 July 0.901 August 1.017 September 0.861 October 0.907 November 1.141 December 1 .763 3. By comparing the forecast of county-wide department store sales with actual sales, one can determine whether or not there are excess storm-related sales. We have computed a "lift factor" as the ratio of actual sales to forecast sales as a measure of the magnitude of excess sales. Forecast Sales (55 million) Actual Sales (55 million) Lift Factor 50.55 69.0 1.365 53.20 75.0 1.410 66.78 85.2 1.276 103.11 w @ 273.64 351.0 1.283 From the analysis a strong case can be made for excess storm related sales. For each month, actual sales exceed the forecast of what sales would have been without the hurricane. For the 4-month total, actual sales exceeded the forecast by 28.3%.
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I need the formula, how to get these numbers. If you can use excel will be better.
This question was created from Lost Sales Case Report 2016 F.pdf https://www.aceyourstudies.com/file/18402472/Lost-Sales-Case-Report-2016-Fpdf/?focusQaId=10239509
This question was answered on: Dec 18, 2020
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