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Probability & Statistics for Business and
Economics Bonus Problem
Jeffrey Mogul is a Hollywood film producer and he
is currently evaluating a script by new
screenwriter and director, Betty Jo Thurston.
knows that the probability of a film by a new
director being a success is about .10 and the
probability it will flop is .90. The studio
accounting department estimates that if this film
is a hit, it will make $25 million
in profit, whereas if it is a box office failure, it
will lose $8 million.
Jeffrey would like to hire noted film critic
Dick Roper to read the script and
assess its chances of success. Roper is generally able to
correctly predict a successful film 70% of the time and
correctly predict an unsuccessful film 80% of the time. Roper
wants a fee of $1 million.
Don?t Produce Film
1. (8 points) Determine the revised (posterior) probability for each state of nature
(round at 2 decimals)
2. (8 points) Determine the strategy Mogul should follow if Roper is hired ( i.e.
recalculate EMVs based on good review and bad review).
3. (4 points) Determine the expected value of the strategy.
This question was answered on: Dec 18, 2020
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Dec 18, 2020EXPERT
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