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MATH 399N Statistics for Decision Making
Week 6 iLab
Name:_______________________
Statistical Concepts:
- Data Simulation
- Confidence Intervals
- Normal Probabilities
Short Answer Writing Assignment
All answers should be complete sentences.
We need to find the confidence interval for the SLEEP variable. To do this, we need to find the mean and then find the maximum error. Then we can use a calculator to find the interval, (x – E, x + E).
First, find the mean. Under that column, in cell E37, type =AVERAGE(E2:E36). Under that in cell E38, type =STDEV(E2:E36). Now we can find the maximum error of the confidence interval. To find the maximum error, we use the “confidence” formula. In cell E39, type =CONFIDENCE.NORM(0.05,E38,35). The 0.05 is based on the confidence level of 95%, the E38 is the standard deviation, and 35 is the number in our sample. You then need to calculate the confidence interval by using a calculator to subtract the maximum error from the mean (x-E) and add it to the mean (x+E).
- Give and interpret the 95% confidence interval for the hours of sleep a student gets. (5 points)
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Then, you can go down to cell E40 and type =CONFIDENCE.NORM(0.01,E38,35) to find the maximum error for a 99% confidence interval. Again, you would need to use a calculator to subtract this and add this to the mean to find the actual confidence interval.
- Give and interpret the 99% confidence interval for the hours of sleep a student gets. (5 points)
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- Compare the 95% and 99% confidence intervals for the hours of sleep a student gets. Explain the difference between these intervals and why this difference occurs. (10 points)
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- Find the mean and standard deviation of the DRIVE variable by using =AVERAGE(A2:A36) and =STDEV(A2:A36). Assuming that this variable is normally distributed, what percentage of data would you predict would be less than 40 miles? This would be based on the calculated probability. Use the formula =NORM.DIST(40, mean, stdev,TRUE). Now determine the percentage of data points in the dataset that fall within this range. To find the actual percentage in the dataset, sort the DRIVE variable and count how many of the data points are less than 40 out of the total 35 data points. That is the actual percentage. How does this compare with your prediction? (15 points)
| Mean ______________ Standard deviation ____________________ Predicted percentage ______________________________ Actual percentage _____________________________ Comparison ___________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ |
- What percentage of data would you predict would be between 40 and 70 and what percentage would you predict would be more than 70 miles? Subtract the probabilities found through =NORM.DIST(70, mean, stdev, TRUE) and =NORM.DIST(40, mean, stdev, TRUE) for the “between” probability. To get the probability of over 70, use the same =NORM.DIST(70, mean, stdev, TRUE) and then subtract the result from 1 to get “more than”. Now determine the percentage of data points in the dataset that fall within this range, using same strategy as above for counting data points in the data set. How do each of these compare with your prediction and why is there a difference? (15 points)
| Predicted percentage between 40 and 70 ______________________________ Actual percentage _____________________________________________ Predicted percentage more than 70 miles ________________________________ Actual percentage ___________________________________________ Comparison ____________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________ Why? __________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________ |
Drive (miles)
33
28
77
71
54
81
38
29
6
78
63
36
63
36
86
76
42
83
20
94
39
88
25
80
42
71
73
55
25
76
40
4
36
54
6 State
SC
NY
PA
MI
FL
CA
OR
TX
IL
CA
NY
MI
PA
TX
FL
NY
TX
FL
IL
KY
SC
CA
GA
NV
IL
PA
FL
OH
CA
PA
IL
NY
OR
CA
OR Shoe Size
11
7
10
8
9
10
10
9
12
9
11
10
10
7
11
9
9
13
5
11
11
6
9
12
8
7
12
9
8
11
10
9
9
5
13 Height (inches)
68
67
71
64
70
70
67
70
63
71
67
61
66
66
69
65
73
69
62
74
69
63
69
69
65
74
70
67
69
71
68
69
73
70
75 Sleep (hours)
8
4
8
6
8
8
8
7
7
9
8
7
8
5
8
7
7
8
7
8
10
5
7
8
8
8
7
8
6
4
6
7
7
5
10 Gender Car Color
M
blue
F
black
M
blue
F
blue
F
green
F
black
F
silver
M
silver
F
blue
M
blue
M
green
M
blue
F
silver
M
orange
M
black
F
red
F
black
M
blue
F
black
M
red
M
red
F
black
M
silver
M
white
F
red
M
black
F
green
F
dark blue
F
silver
M
silver
M
green
F
blue
M
blue
F
green
M
silver TV (hours)
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
6
6 Money (dollars)
9.00
29.00
52.00
1.00
5.00
7.00
15.00
32.00
44.00
47.00
4.00
5.00
5.00
6.00
6.00
7.00
7.00
8.00
10.00
20.00
26.00
43.00
53.00
3.00
4.00
6.00
15.00
31.00
34.00
13.00
16.00
21.00
23.00
6.00
7.00 Coin
4
4
5
4
3
7
4
3
2
2
6
7
7
3
3
6
3
3
2
4
4
6
5
4
4
7
3
4
4
5
5
5
5
7
4
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